Arthur Hayes Central Banks Around the World Initiating Rate Cut Cycle Going Allin on Bitcoin and Shitcoins
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes previously warned everyone to closely monitor the USD/JPY trend. If the Japanese yen depreciates wildly to the 200 level, it will trigger a gamble between China, the United States, and Japan, ultimately leading to significant devaluation of banknotes and fiat currencies, with Bitcoin rising to $1 million.
Japan and various countries are beginning to narrow interest rate differentials.
USD depreciation, long Bitcoin, then shit coins!
At the time, Hayes pointed out that if the US-Japan interest rate differential continues, investors will continue to sell the yen, causing the yen to depreciate continuously. This will harm China’s export competitiveness, forcing the renminbi to depreciate as well. However, the Biden administration may not be able to tolerate renminbi depreciation before the election, as this would continue to erode US employment opportunities and cause him to lose the election.
However, the situation has changed now! In addition to China cutting reserve requirements earlier this year to provide market liquidity, Arthur Hayes has also compiled a chart of policy interest rates for various central banks, including:
Central banks that have started interest rate cuts: Bank of Canada (purple line), European Central Bank ECB (yellow line)
Expected to follow with interest rate cuts: United States (white line), Bank of England (red line)
Still at a low of 0.1%: Bank of Japan (green line)
Hayes believes that if the market believes that the interest rate differential between the yen and the US dollar, euro, pound, and other fiat currencies will narrow over time, it will buy yen and sell everything else! Faced with the depreciation of global fiat currencies, Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset.
As the People’s Bank of China, Bank of Canada, and European Central Bank have all cut interest rates successively, kicking off the fireworks of central banks in June, this will help cryptocurrencies break out of the summer doldrums in the northern hemisphere. Although this was not Hayes’s initial expected scenario (he originally expected it to start in August).
However, the trend is clear. Central banks are beginning an easing cycle. Long Bitcoin, then shit coins!
Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin
