Polymarket Exposes HighValue French Trader Betting Nearly 30 Million Dollars on Trumps Election Victory
The user who bet millions of dollars on election markets on Polymarket has attracted attention and raised concerns about market manipulation and the use of the platform by US users. However, Polymarket has stated to multiple media outlets, including Bloomberg, CNBC, and Forbes, that they have completed an investigation and found that the user in question, Fredi9999, is a French trader and did not have any intention to manipulate the market.
Polymarket’s spokesperson emphasized that there was no evidence found by a third-party professional organization that the user attempted to manipulate the market. They stated that they understand the user took a specific position based on their personal view of the election, and the user has a wealth of trading experience and financial services background. The user has also agreed not to open new accounts on the platform in the future.
Polymarket has gained attention this year and has reached a total trading volume of $2.4 billion. Several other prediction market products, including Backpack, Decrypt, Drift, Wintermute, and dYdX, have also been launched. The election market has attracted a lot of attention and raised potential regulatory issues.
After reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, Polymarket is prohibited from providing services to US users. The CFTC continues to monitor whether its international users comply with platform rules. This is different from the policies of competitors Kalshi and PredictIt. While PredictIt allows US users to participate, it sets a maximum bet limit of $850 per user.
The accuracy of prediction markets has been a subject of controversy compared to traditional opinion polls. Although some supporters, such as Elon Musk, claim that prediction markets are more accurate than polls, there are slight differences in the Trump win rates across different markets: Polymarket (61.6%), Kalshi (59%), PredictIt (57%), RealClearPolitics polls (49.3%), and FiveThirtyEight (51%). Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump 46%-43%. Polymarket emphasizes that its platform reflects the probability of events happening, rather than measuring voter preferences like polls.
CFTC, Fredi9999, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and prediction markets
Further reading: CFTC closely monitors prediction markets as Trump’s winning odds rise, potential impact on Polymarket
