Markus Thielen: Exclusive Bitcoin Bull Market Only Halfway Through, Aiming for $125K
BlockBeats interviewed Markus Thielen, a popular analyst who serves as the Chief Analyst at Matrixport and also founded 10X Research. He has played a precise role in predicting the recent fluctuations and surges in Bitcoin. With Bitcoin’s rise of 44% last month, reaching the milestone of $60,000, how does he view the future market?
Reviewing his accurate predictions:
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Matrixport event summary | Wu Jihan’s tweets clarify: the plunge is not Matrixport’s responsibility
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Matrixport analyst: Bitcoin’s “fourth wave” is over, turning bullish, with a target price of $50,000 in the first quarter
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10X Research: The winning secret of Bitcoin during Chinese New Year, with a success rate of 90% and a return rate of up to 10%
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Table of Contents
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Bull market is only halfway through
Estimated Bitcoin price target of $125,000
ETF is the reason behind Bitcoin’s explosive growth
This bull market is a Bitcoin bull market
Markus analyzed the Bitcoin price based on past halvings and the price of Bitcoin (see the graph below). He believes that October 2022 is the bottom period. His viewpoint is to buy Bitcoin 14 to 15 months before the halving, instead of entering the market after the halving, as shown in this chart:
We are still only halfway through the bull market, and the market can continue until February or September next year.
The previous three US presidential elections coincided with Bitcoin halving cycles. The average annual return rate of Bitcoin in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 US elections was 192%. Considering the Bitcoin price at the beginning of this year was $40,000, a 192% increase would project a year-end Bitcoin price of $125,000.
Last July, 10X Research also observed another indicator: “When Bitcoin sets a new high within a year, there will be a 300% rebound.” This data also supports the $125,000 figure.
ETF represents the institutionalization of Bitcoin. Many asset management companies in the United States are using ETFs for their asset allocation decisions. Their funds are in the range of tens of trillions, and the impact of such funds entering the market is significant. This is also why we are seeing the explosive growth of Bitcoin.
Based on this reason, Markus believes that this bull market is very different. The previous bull market was the DeFi summer, with altcoins taking the spotlight, but this time it is more or less focused on Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance is around 52%. If there is indeed a rebound in altcoins, Bitcoin’s dominance will drop below 50%. However, Markus has not yet seen a narrative for altcoins.
BTC
Markus Thielen
Further reading
Bitcoin’s RSI breaks through 80, historical data shows a 50% average increase in 60 days, could reach $74,600 before the halving?
Bitcoin surpasses $44,000, Chinese New Year market starts, beware of the evil fifth wave
