JPMorgan: Probability of Ethereum Spot ETF Approval in May Is Less Than 50%, Needs to Prove ETH is Not a Security

According to The Block, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must classify ETH as a “non-security” before approving an Ethereum spot ETF, so he estimates that the probability of approval in May does not exceed 50%.

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Need to prove that ETH is not a security
Recent comments by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
Last week, the SEC approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs as expected, and the trading volume exceeded $10 billion on the first two days, which led the market to expect the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF in May, as the current approval deadlines for VanEck, ARK & 21Shares, and Hashdex all fall in May.

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Overview of management fees for 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, expected to raise $4 billion on the first day
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Bitcoin spot ETF trading volume exceeds $10 billion in the first two days, success or bubble?
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Shift in focus to ETH? Analysts optimistic about the approval of “Ethereum Spot ETF” in May this year
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However, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out a crucial factor: the SEC needs to classify Ethereum as a commodity, not a security, in order to approve an Ethereum spot ETF. Therefore, JPMorgan estimates that the probability of approval in May does not exceed 50%.

Last week, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler was asked about the possibility of an Ethereum spot ETF. Gensler suggested taking a cautious approach. He compared recent Bitcoin ETFs with approved gold and silver trading products, indicating that the current approval is limited to “non-security commodity-like tokens” of Bitcoin. And the SEC’s decision to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs “should by no means be seen as a willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities.” He also reiterated that without prejudging any type of cryptocurrency, the majority of cryptocurrencies are investment contracts and therefore subject to federal securities laws.

Gary Gensler
JPMorgan
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
Ethereum spot ETF

Further reading:
The frenzy of Bitcoin spot ETF updates, Jane Street, JPMorgan, and others on the AP list
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon hates cryptocurrency, but the number of employees in its blockchain division continues to increase.