Market Maker GSR Probability of Solana Spot ETF Increases Significantly Expected to Outperform Bitcoin
GSR’s Latest Report: “Is Solana Next?”
Assessing the potential upside of Solana, GSR suggests that merely the anticipation of a spot ETF approval could propel SOL’s future gains to surpass BTC by several multiples.
(VanEck files first Solana ETF application in the US, Bloomberg analysts deem approval plausible.)
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GSR: Increased Likelihood of Solana Spot ETF
Solana Market Demand Stays Strong at Third
SOL Future Gains Outpace BTC Again
GSR: Increased Likelihood of Solana Spot ETF
GSR’s report highlights several bullish factors for Solana:
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Potential launch of a spot ETF.
Wide-ranging applications (protocols) and a substantial user and developer community.
Technological excellence: including proven mechanisms, parallel transaction processing, and high hardware demands optimizing speed and security (at the expense of decentralization).
The report primarily focuses on the potential probability of a Solana spot ETF launch and its positive price impact thereafter, especially amid cryptocurrencies increasingly becoming a political issue.
GSR analysts note that Trump’s support for the crypto industry led Democrats to relax their stance on digital assets during election years:
While current legislation and regulatory structures may not permit numerous digital asset spot ETF launches, the Trump administration and liberal SEC commissioners might. The emergence of the Digital Assets Market Structure Act defining securities and commodities boosts this possibility.
Solana Market Demand Stays Strong at Third
According to GSR’s evaluation criteria, Solana’s market demand and decentralization potential could position it alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum in the spot ETF lineup.
Particularly, Solana ranks second in demand evaluation, significantly ahead of third-place Near.
Decentralization rating
Demand rating
SOL Future Gains Outpace BTC Again
GSR’s bullish outlook on SOL is based on the scenario where “the market begins to anticipate spot ETF approval,” akin to Bitcoin’s rise from $27,000 in October to around $63,000 currently.
In comparison, GSR forecasts SOL could rise 1.4 times in a bear market, 3.4 times in normal conditions, and 8.9 times in a bull market, potentially even higher. This optimism stems from SOL’s distinct ecosystem role compared to BTC, with extensive use in staking and DeFi applications, where liquidity and market cap growth may not follow a linear path.
Potential SOL Upside
BTC
GSR
Solana
Spot ETF
Further Reading
Review of Market Performance in the First Half of 2024: Both US Stocks and Cryptocurrencies Show Strong Upswings
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Sell Pressure Less Severe Than Anticipated, Majority Held by Long-Term BTC Holders
