Continuous Selling Pressure on GBTC, Bitcoin’s Downtrend May Not Reverse Until Late March

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Grayscale ETF Exits Over $2 Billion
Bitcoin Spot ETF: GBTC Redeemed in Six Trading Days
How Long Until GBTC Sells Out?
Arthur Hayes: About to Break $40,000
According to LookOnChain, Grayscale currently holds 566,973 BTC, a decrease of about 52,227 BTC (approximately $2.14 billion) since the ETF was approved. Other issuers’ Bitcoin holdings include:
BlackRock holds 33,431 BTC (approximately $1.37 billion)
Fidelity holds 24,857 BTC (approximately $1.02 billion)
Bitwise holds 10,152 BTC (approximately $415.6 million)
Image from/LookOnChain
Based on Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas’ statistics, a total of $1,148.7 million has flowed into all Bitcoin spot ETF products in the past six trading days (excluding the outflow from GBTC, it would be $3,955.6 million). During these six trading days, there were two days of net outflows.
Since the redemption of Bitcoin assets from GBTC has been considered a key factor causing the price decline, many people believe that the Bitcoin price will only stabilize or continue to decline until the selling pressure from GBTC stops.
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(Matrixport: Buy Bitcoin and wait, greed index has not reached a low point yet)
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Image from/Eric Balchunas
Ignoring the lower redemption level on the first day, an average of $542.36 million was sold on days 2-6. Currently, the asset value of GBTC is still $22,943.2 million. If the average redemption level is maintained, there will be at least 42.3 trading days remaining. In other words, there is a chance that the selling pressure will stop in late March.
March also aligns with the belief of most people that there will be a significant correction in the first quarter.
(Arthur Hayes: Cryptocurrency and market predictions for March 2024, Bitcoin may experience a 30-40% correction)
(Aylo: Bitcoin’s “sell the news” will not come during the “ETF approval,” Q1 will inevitably see a major drop)
BitMEX’s founder stated that Bitcoin may fall below $40,000, and he has bought put options for March 29.
Arthur Hayes
ETF
GBTC
Decline
Bitcoin
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Further Reading
Market Manipulation: U.S. SEC Officially Sues Ripple and Two Executives for Selling $1.3 Billion in Unregistered Securities and Manipulating Prices
“Jack’s Trading Classroom”: Perspectives on BTCUSD’s Avalanche-like Decline