Bitcoin ETF Underestimated, Andrew Kang Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $50K in February, Setting New High in March
Mechanism co-founder Andrew Kang emphasizes the profound impact of a Bitcoin spot ETF on prices, believing that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high next month. He also cites several data points to support his claim.
Bitcoin’s Astonishing Annual Net Inflow Volume
Andrew Kang implies that his extensive travels in various countries have allowed him to realize the amount of global liquidity and the funds that may flow into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. He points out that the total annual income of individuals in the United States is approximately $13 trillion, which accounts for 25% of global GDP. Therefore, the total annual income of individuals worldwide is estimated to be around $52 trillion. With approximately 10% of the global population holding cryptocurrencies, assuming that cryptocurrency holders invest 1% of their annual income into Bitcoin, the annual net inflow into Bitcoin would be $52 billion, equivalent to a daily net inflow of $150 million.
Bitcoin ETF Further Boosting Buying Interest
Andrew Kang emphasizes that the above calculations do not yet account for the impact of a Bitcoin spot ETF:
It seems that everyone has forgotten that demand for Bitcoin has been present even before these ETFs were approved. Otherwise, how do you explain Bitcoin’s continuous rise over the past 10 years?
Therefore, he believes that the net inflow calculation is already conservative, as the following factors have not been taken into account:
Cryptocurrency investors may invest 1% of their annual income, but true believers may invest over 50%, resulting in a total average of 3-5%.
The calculation does not include investments from corporations, macro funds, retirement funds, sovereign wealth funds, and other sources of funding.
Bearish Pressure is No Match for Net Buying
Andrew Kang also points out that the claims of Mt. Gox creditors, the Bitcoin seized by the US government, and the selling of mined Bitcoin have always been bearish arguments for many people. However, in reality, when measuring net buying, these selling pressures are insignificant.
He calculates potential selling pressures, including Mt. Gox, to be around $17 billion.
If we consider the annual net inflow of $52 billion he calculated, along with the buying interest from the Bitcoin ETF, it far exceeds these bearish pressures.
Note: Andrew Kang’s calculations completely disregard investors’ profit-taking, and the data may differ from Bitcoin Treasuries.
Bitcoin to Break All-Time High in March
Andrew Kang emphasizes that the bullishness of a Bitcoin spot ETF cannot be compared to events such as the launch of Bitcoin futures on the CME and Coinbase’s IPO. He also notes that net inflows have been occurring for several consecutive days.
He predicts that Bitcoin will not drop below $40,000 in the future, and in February, it will rise to $50,000-$60,000, reaching a new all-time high in March.
Andrew Kang concludes by quoting his tweet from October of last year, where he urged everyone not to miss the epic rebound, with Bitcoin’s price just breaking $30,000.
Historical New High
Bitcoin
Bitcoin spot ETF
