Aylo: Bitcoin Q1 is expected to experience a significant drop when “ETF approval” is not the news to sell.
KOL Aylo, with 80,000 followers on Twitter, shared his views on various cryptocurrency fields in 2024 in a post today (1/3). Here is the Bitcoin section compiled by Chain News:
Aylo believes that 2024 will be a bullish year for the entire cryptocurrency market.
We have macro bullish factors (increased liquidity, lower interest rates, and typically strong market conditions in election years), Bitcoin halving, and the imminent approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, with the possibility of an Ethereum spot ETF to follow.
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Although there is evidence of retail investors returning to the market, most people still don’t realize that cryptocurrencies are not going away. Everything will gradually unfold, possibly with Bitcoin breaking its all-time high (ATH), and then taking off at once.
Table of Contents
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Key points: The market has already indicated who the winners are in the cycle
Bitcoin
Bitcoin broke new highs this year, expected in Q3/Q4
ETFs have an impact on liquidity
The cyclical market is not identical
The Bitcoin ecosystem becomes an unprecedented catalyst
The real time to “sell the news”?
Aylo believes that if you don’t want to be held back by slower coins, the leading coins tend to lead the market in a bull market. To a large extent, the market has already told you who the winners of the cycle are, you just need to pay attention.
Aylo believes that Bitcoin will break its historical high again this year, but hopes it will happen in the third or fourth quarter, as if it happens sooner, this cycle’s bull market may reach its peak faster.
Aylo believes that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF will indeed have a significant impact on this asset class. He values the impact of pension funds flowing into Bitcoin and points out, “Now is the time for financial advisors to propose this spot product to clients and recommend allocating 1-2% of their investment portfolios. Any financial advisor who does not make this recommendation will be in trouble if BTC rises 100-200% in the next few years.”
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Traditional finance professionals: After the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, it will be adopted by a large number of 401(k) retirement plans.
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Aylo states that compared to the bullish sentiment in 2019, the bullish sentiment in 2023, based on past Bitcoin bull market cycles, is much higher. This caught many people off guard. However, the results show that the cycle does not perform the same every time.
Aylo believes that through Bitcoin’s network, through ordinals, L2, and BRC-20, actual network activity is increasing, and Bitcoin now often charges more fees than any other blockchain.
This is expected to further boost in 2024, as people buy BTC to participate in these new forms of speculation. These things did not exist in the previous Bitcoin cycle, so this is a major change and adds additional value to BTC.
Many people in the market are worried that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF will cause a sell-off. Aylo points out a slightly different view, stating that the real time to “sell the news” should be when the ETF is actually launched, rather than when it is approved.
This would be a major buying opportunity before further upward movement.
A significant drop is inevitable in Q1 2024 after a series of sell-offs.
Aylo
BTC
ETF
Bitcoin
Further reading
Bloomberg ETF analyst: All signs favor the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, haven’t heard anything else
Taiwan’s Judicial Yuan Facebook page introduces “Bitcoin” on the anniversary of the genesis block, reminding to beware of cryptocurrency scams.
