Quantitative Easing Revives the BTC Bull Market! Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Set to Base at 74K, Altcoin Season Driven by Fundamentals Approaches
Bitcoin Becomes a Safe Haven Amid Trump’s Tariffs and Global Financial Market Turmoil
Bitcoin has once again become a focal point for safe-haven investments as Trump imposes tariffs and global financial markets experience turbulence. Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, stated in an interview at Token 2049 held in Dubai on May 1 that his fund Maelstrom has fully increased its position in Bitcoin and predicts that the next wave of funds will flow into “high-quality altcoins with real returns.” He also provided key observations on Trump’s reinitiating tariff policies, global capital flows, and institutional buying behavior, asserting that quantitative easing (QE) will resume and that this Bitcoin bull market has only just begun.
Maelstrom Fully Invests in Bitcoin, Buying from $90,000 Down to $74,000
Hayes first revealed that his Maelstrom fund currently holds “maximum exposure to cryptocurrencies,” having purchased Bitcoin from $90,000 down to $74,000, and even considers $74,500 to be the lowest point for this bull market correction.
“We have fully invested all our cash into BTC, and now we are waiting for altcoin season to come, preparing to switch to some fundamentally strong coins,” Hayes emphasized.
Tariffs and Capital Flows Reprice, Bitcoin No Longer Drops with the Stock Market
Hayes pointed out that Trump’s reinitiating the trade war is actually part of the rebalancing of U.S.-China capital. He believes that the structural U.S. trade deficit will be rewritten, with tariff policies forcing Chinese capital to return and exacerbating the global supply chain restructuring. The volatility in the bond market has become a critical trigger point:
“When bond market volatility increased in April and Trump announced new tariffs, U.S. policymakers quickly adopted a more dovish stance because they cannot sustain such volatility.”
Hayes emphasized that the result of each severe bond market fluctuation is money printing. “Next time, even if the stock market falls, Bitcoin will no longer drop.”
Altcoin Season is Coming, Driven Not by Speculation but by ‘Fundamentals’
Regarding the upcoming capital flows, Hayes believes that investors will focus on projects with “real users, cash flow, and profitability.” He termed this phase as “fundamental season.”
He also revealed that his fund Maelstrom is currently focusing on the following projects:
- Pendle: A leader in the crypto fixed income market.
- EtherFi: A cash card launched on the Visa network, allowing users to spend, borrow, and create stable cash flow through ETH collateral.
- UPXI & Solana stock structures: A way for institutional funds to enter without directly buying coins.
He believes that there are fewer than 50 projects in the market with real cash flow, and investors will no longer chase empty-shell tokens but will choose projects “with businesses running and returns for token holders.”
Don’t Expect Government to Buy Coins; Real Freedom Should Be the Goal
When discussing whether government institutions would enter the market to buy coins, Hayes calmly stated:
“The government buys things for political reasons, so we shouldn’t be too excited. If they buy quickly, they might sell just as fast.”
He urged the industry to concentrate its efforts on fighting for true freedom:
“Instead of lobbying the government to buy coins, we should strive for a situation where engineers can code freely without the fear of being arrested. That’s what we should be doing.”
In summary, Hayes stated that the Bitcoin bull market is not over, and monetary policies along with bond market volatility will continue to drive its value. However, this altcoin season will not be driven by speculation but by “fundamentals.” For investors, the opportunity to enter may not be far off.
Risk Warning
Investing in cryptocurrencies is highly risky, and their prices can be extremely volatile. You may lose your entire principal. Please assess risks carefully.
