10X Research: 44K Identified as Bitcoin Resistance Level, Q1 Target Set at 50K with Year-End Projection of 70K USD.
Markus Thielen of 10X Research has released the latest Bitcoin price targets. The current resistance level is 44,000 USD, with a target of 50,000 USD for the first quarter and a year-end target of 70,000 USD.
Bitcoin has been consolidating within a range this year. According to the report, although Bitcoin has seen upward trends for 10 out of its 13 years of existence, the returns in January were more complicated, with only 7 years showing an increase and 6 years showing a downward trend.
Bitcoin has rebounded to just below the short-term resistance level of 42,800 points indicated by the trend channel from November to January. The 43,000-44,000 region is a resistance area, but Thielen expects Bitcoin to break through and regain the level above 50,000 USD by the end of this quarter.
Based on CoinDesk’s report, Markus Thielen believes that with the macro environment, favorable monetary policies (referring to the upcoming interest rate reduction cycle), the US election cycle, and the increasing demand for Bitcoin ETFs from traditional financial investors, Bitcoin rebounding to 70,000 USD seems possible.
Although the Federal Reserve may have postponed its first interest rate cut to May or June, inflation is decreasing and economic growth is being maintained. Additionally, the US presidential election cycle coincides with Bitcoin’s halving year, which historically has led to an upward trend:
– 2012 saw an increase of 152%
– 2016 saw an increase of 121%
– 2020 saw an increase of 302%
The average increase for these three instances is 192%.
The current price predictions for Bitcoin by various institutions are as follows:
– Bloomberg (Mike McGlone): 100,000 USD by 2026
– Bernstein (Gautam Chhugani): 150,000 USD by 2025
– BitQuant: 80,000 USD – 250,000 USD by the end of 2024
– ARK Invest: 600,000 USD – 1,500,000 USD by 2030
According to the consensus average price forecast after Bitcoin’s halving by CoinGecko, the price is expected to reach 87,000 USD.
Considering this, is Markus Thielen’s target price of 70,000 USD too conservative? Thielen explains that although higher target prices can be considered based on data analysis, 70,000 USD is the most realistic target as there hasn’t been a broader bull market theme yet.
For more information, please refer to the article “Bitcoin’s Excellent Historical Performance in February: Analyst from Matrixport States That the Key to the Rise is the Resistance Level of 44,000” and “US Stocks Reach New High, Bitcoin Rebounds from Bottom, Breaks Through the 43K Resistance Line”.
