Matrixport Analyst Explains Persistence of Bearish Outlook: 3AC and FTX Triggered This Signal Before Incidents
Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen has released several tweets explaining why he still insists on the bearish analysis published on January 3rd. He revealed that a “BTC breakout failure” signal appeared at that time, which had previously occurred before the 3AC margin liquidation in May 2022 and before the FTX blow-up in October 2022.
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Matrixport Incident
Bitcoin Halving Always Drops to March
Better Markets Gets Along with SEC Chairman
Why did Matrixport suddenly turn bearish?
Bitcoin is expected to fall to $36,350
Matrixport Incident
On the evening of January 3rd, Bitcoin briefly dropped from $45,320 to $40,626, and Matrixport’s analysis report was considered one of the reasons for the decline. Matrixport co-founder Wu Jihan responded to this incident multiple times, stating that the decline had nothing to do with the analysis report.
( Matrixport Incident Summary | Wu Jihan Tweets Responding to the Plunge: Matrixport Not Responsible )
Although the price of BTC did not continue to decline as predicted in the analysis report, analyst Markus Thielen still insists on his views. On January 8th, he tweeted several times on Twitter. The following is a summary of his tweets.
Bitcoin Halving Always Drops to March
Markus Thielen pointed out that despite the media’s overwhelming promotion of the Bitcoin spot ETF being “about to” be approved, the date has been continuously delayed until the final deadline on January 10th.
He previously believed that the reasons for not approving it include:
– The SEC’s five-member voting committee is dominated by Democrats.
– Democrats do not like “cryptocurrency.”
– None of the applications have met the key requirement that must be met before the SEC’s approval.
– From a political perspective, there is no reason to approve the Bitcoin spot ETF and legitimize Bitcoin in another form.
Markus Thielen quoted the 2021 BTC trend for comparison.
Better Markets Gets Along with SEC Chairman
The U.S. non-profit organization Better Markets has repeatedly criticized the Bitcoin spot ETF, and Markus Thielen agrees with their argument:
– In the Grayscale case, the judge only believed that the SEC could not fully explain why futures were issued but rejected the spot ETF. However, the approval is still up to the SEC.
– Coinbase’s Market Surveillance Sharing Agreement cannot detect market manipulation or fraudulent trading.
Markus Thielen also pointed out that the CEO of Better Markets has worked closely with SEC Chairman Gensler in the past.
( U.S. Non-Profit Organization Criticizes Bitcoin Spot ETF Again: Worthless Gambling Chips )
Why did Matrixport suddenly turn bearish?
Markus Thielen revealed that the reason for the sudden release of the bearish analysis on January 3rd was the appearance of a “BTC breakout failure” signal. This signal had previously appeared before the 3AC margin liquidation in May 2022 and before the FTX blow-up in October 2022.
Bitcoin is expected to fall to $36,350
Markus Thielen emphasized that he always recommends hedging risks in the long term through options, rather than betting on the SEC’s final decision with spot or futures. In addition, looking at the halving cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin usually experiences a false rebound in January but quickly loses upward momentum, resulting in a 14% drop in March. It is expected to reach $36,350.
Better Markets
Matrixport
SEC
Bitcoin spot ETF
Further reading:
Matrixport Incident Summary | Wu Jihan Tweets Responding to the Plunge: Matrixport Not Responsible
Bitcoin ETF Will Not Be Approved? Cryptocurrency Market Suffers Nearly $600 Million Loss
