Bitfinex: Bitcoin’s Fundamental Similarities to Pre-2020 Bull Run Reach Cyclical High 6 Months Later
According to a report released on April 15th by Bitfinex Alpha, analysts pointed out that the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges has reached its highest point since January 2023. At the same time, the amount of Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year continues to decrease.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Plummet, Similar to Pre-Rise in 2020
Analysts at Bitfinex stated that as the Bitcoin halving approaches, a large amount of Bitcoin is flowing out of centralized exchanges, and the amount of inactive circulation (Bitcoin that has not moved for over a year) has reached an 18-month low.
The report mentioned:
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The sudden drop in long-term Bitcoin holders is similar to the behavior before the rise in 2020, indicating that the market may be entering a similar growth stage.
Similar to the second red arrow
Bitcoin Cycle Peak May Occur in Six Months
In the past month, long-term holders have been actively selling their Bitcoin at a rate of approximately 16,800 BTC per day.
Analysts stated:
Based on previous cycles, this trend usually lasts for about seven months and is often a precursor to a market downturn. This suggests that we may still be six months away from the historical peak of Bitcoin in this cycle.
However, the analysts also cautioned that Bitcoin had already reached a new all-time high before the halving event in this cycle. Therefore, this cycle will be different and shorter and more intense than before.
After experiencing several days of decline, existing indicators including funding rates indicate that market attention has shifted back to the Bitcoin halving.
Analysts at Bitfinex believe that the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges can also be seen as investors transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets, waiting for potential gains after the halving.
According to research, the “similar trend to the rise before December 2020” claimed by the analysts saw Bitcoin experience a maximum decline of about -11% in December, falling from $19,913 to $17,565, and rising to $41,950 (138%) in January, with only two weeks of retracement.
The current maximum drawdown of Bitcoin is close to 20% (-18.68%), and it has been consolidating for a month.
BTC/USDT daily chart|OKX
Bitfinex
Bitcoin
Further reading:
Bitfinex to Raise Over $6 Million in Tokenized Securities to Revamp El Salvador International Airport
Bitfinex Unexpectedly Suspends Trading, Team: Due to Abnormal Performance Maintenance
