The Probability of Trumps Victory Surges What Prevails in the Market Does Bitcoin Count as Trump Trading
The probability of Donald Trump winning the election on Polymarket has surpassed his opponent, Joe Biden, since 10/5, and has continued to rise, reaching 64.2% by 10/24. Bitcoin has been slowly rising from 61K on 10/5 but has been struggling to break through the 70K level, causing impatience within the crypto community. So, what kind of Trump trading is prevalent in the market now?
The US dollar strengthens, and US bond yields rise.
Recently, US bond yields and the US dollar have been strengthening simultaneously. Standard Chartered Bank stated that the rise of the US dollar this month is mainly due to the market’s bet on Trump’s increased chances of winning the US presidential election. This has driven the rise of the US dollar, with 60% of this increase attributed to the expected election of Trump.
Trump advocates for imposing high tariffs on imported goods, which may trigger inflation and raise interest rates. Other policy proposals, such as tax cuts and deregulation, aim to stimulate economic growth and increase corporate profitability, which would also increase market demand for the US dollar. During this period, the US dollar index has risen by 1.76%, while the ten-year US bond yield has risen by 7.04%.
Gold frequently hits historical highs.
Gold has frequently hit historical highs this year due to geopolitical risks, the beginning of the US interest rate cycle, and uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. It has risen by over 30% year-to-date. However, it seems to have less direct correlation with Trump trading.
Has Bitcoin jumped on the Trump trading bandwagon?
Will the crypto-friendly Trump policies allow Bitcoin to ride this wave of Trump trading? Although Bitcoin has also been slowly rising from 61K on 10/5, it has been unable to break through the 70K level. While various institutions predict that a Trump victory would be more favorable for cryptocurrency regulation and bring strong upward momentum for Bitcoin, the current market seems to have not yet felt this optimistic atmosphere. Chain News has compiled the following Bitcoin price predictions after Trump’s election:
Standard Chartered Bank: $200,000
Bernstein: $90,000
Bitwise: $250,000 (excluding the election as a factor)
