Strong Nonfarm Data Boosts US Stocks to New Highs, Bitcoin Rebounds Above 43K
The strong non-farm payroll data released by the United States on Friday led to a continued rise in US stocks, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new all-time high. As for the trend of Bitcoin, with the end of the sell-off of GBTC positions by FTX and the gradual reduction of funds outflow from GBTC, the latest report released by Coinbase also suggests that the downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened.
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Strong US Economy, Rate Cuts Delayed Until May
Downward Pressure on Bitcoin Eases, Reaching 43K Again
The report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls added 353,000 people in January, far exceeding market expectations of 187,000 people, and the unemployment rate was 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. This indicates that the US job market is stronger than expected.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in a post-meeting press conference on January 31 that a rate cut in March is unlikely, which caused panic selling in the market (blue circle, with the S&P 500 index falling 1.61% that day). However, the market regained bullish confidence on Thursday and Friday, not only recovering from the decline on January 31, but also reaching a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index.
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Lower-than-expected inflation and better-than-market employment data have reignited investors’ optimism about a “soft landing” or even “no landing” for the US economy. According to the CME FedWatch Index, the market’s expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been pushed back to May, with as many as 60% of investors believing that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March.
Bitcoin’s recent trend is similar to that of US stocks. It briefly fell below 42K on January 31 but has since been slowly rising. With the end of the sell-off of GBTC positions by FTX and the gradual reduction of funds outflow from GBTC, the latest report released by Coinbase also suggests that the downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened.
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Coinbase Analyst: Downward Pressure on Bitcoin Has Weakened, Macro Factors and Halving Effects May Intensify in April
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Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen also quoted the well-known technical indicator Elliott Wave Theory, pointing out that Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $49,000 to $38,500 constitutes the fourth wave, and the fifth wave has already begun. Once it breaks through $43,000, a bullish position should be reestablished. He expects the fifth wave to potentially be completed in the first quarter, with a price target of $52,671.
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Matrixport Analyst: Bitcoin’s “Fourth Wave” Ends and Turns Bullish, Targeting $50,000 in the First Quarter
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