Revisiting History? ETH/BTC Plummets Below Its Lowest Point in Two Years, Can It Replicate the 2020 Halving Trend?
The cryptocurrency market has been focused on Bitcoin spot ETFs in the past few months, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropping below 0.05 at one point. However, looking back at the Bitcoin halving in 2020, the ETH/BTC exchange rate was also at a low point.
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ETH/BTC returns to a two-and-a-half-year low
The early stages of a bull market always revolve around a large amount of BTC narrative
After Bitcoin ETF, market focus shifts to Ethereum ETF?
ETH/BTC returns to a two-and-a-half-year low
In the past few months, the cryptocurrency market has seen a general increase in Bitcoin spot ETFs, which has benefited ETH as well. However, the increase in ETH has not kept up with BTC, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has returned to its level from over two years ago, in May 2021 (0.051). It also reached 0.049 on June 13, 2022.
ETH/BTC monthly chart | Source: OKX
The early stages of a bull market always revolve around a large amount of BTC narrative
As can be seen from the above chart, ETH/BTC also reached a low point (0.016) at the beginning of the year in 2020, during the third Bitcoin halving on May 12. However, it has been on the rise ever since.
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Cryptocurrency bull markets often lay the groundwork with Bitcoin halving, accompanied by a large amount of positive news about Bitcoin. Looking back at 2020 and 2021, the positive news about Bitcoin was just as significant as the “Bitcoin spot ETF” scheduled for 2024:
MicroStrategy announced the use of reserve cash to buy BTC.
Tesla announced the purchase of Bitcoin.
Publicly traded companies also bought Bitcoin.
Bitcoin futures ETF launched.
Even so, ETH was still able to rise against the tide in an environment where Solana, Avalanche, and other emerging public chains were on the rise. ETH/BTC reached a high point of 0.08 that year.
Can ETH repeat history and rebound from the bottom during the halving year? Some institutions and analysts also hold optimistic views.
After Bitcoin ETF, market focus shifts to pursuing Ethereum ETF?
Recently, Matrixport analyst, who has been bearish on Bitcoin spot ETFs, once again emphasized their bearish stance on January 10, stating that even if Bitcoin ETF is approved, the focus may shift to Ethereum. This is because the deadline for Ethereum ETF approval is May this year, and Ethereum’s performance from now on may surpass that of Bitcoin.
(
Matrixport: MicroStrategy’s stock price indicates that Bitcoin should be at 38K, SEC false news is a sell-the-news event
)
Aylo, a Twitter KOL with 80,000 followers, also wrote a supportive article for ETH on January 3, stating that Ethereum went through a difficult period in 2023, but looking ahead to 2024, ETH has a lot of catalysts and should be a better year. He predicted that ETH will break its all-time high and outperform BTC.
He listed several positive factors for Ethereum:
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Aylo: Ethereum will reach a new all-time high in 2024, outperforming Bitcoin
)
In addition, specific analysts from The Block Research also expect factors such as re-collateralization protocols to drive the price of ETH again.
(
The Block prediction: Sei, NEAR will become “Solana killers,” avatar-style NFTs will not make a comeback
)
This article is not investment advice.
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