Does Trumps increased chance of winning the election influence the market Does Bitcoin count as Trump trading
The probability of Donald Trump winning the election on the Polymarket prediction market has surpassed his opponent, Joe Biden, since October 5th, and has continued to rise, reaching 64.2% by October 24th. Bitcoin has been gradually rising since October 5th, starting at 61K, but has been struggling to break through the 70,000 level, causing impatience within the crypto community. So, what kind of Trump trading is prevalent in the market now?
The US dollar has been strengthening, and US bond yields have been rising in tandem. Standard Chartered Bank stated that the recent rise in the US dollar is mainly due to the increased probability of Trump winning the US presidential election, as predicted by the betting market. They calculated that 60% of this increase is related to the expected election of Trump. Trump advocates for imposing high tariffs on imported goods, which could reignite inflation and raise interest rates. Other policy proposals, such as tax cuts and deregulation, aim to stimulate economic growth and increase corporate profitability, which would also increase the demand for the US dollar. The US dollar index has risen by 1.76% during this period, while the ten-year US bond yield has risen by 7.04%.
Gold has frequently hit new historical highs due to geopolitical risks, the beginning of the US interest rate cycle, and uncertainty surrounding the US election. It has risen by over 30% so far this year, although it seems to have less direct correlation with Trump trading.
Does Trump’s crypto-friendly policies benefit Bitcoin?
Will Bitcoin benefit from this wave of Trump trading, which is more favorable to cryptocurrencies? Although Bitcoin has also been gradually rising since October 5th, starting at 61K, it has been unable to break through the 70,000 level. While various institutions predict that a Trump victory would be more favorable for cryptocurrency regulation, providing strong upward momentum for Bitcoin, the market does not seem to feel this optimistic atmosphere yet. Chain News has compiled the following Bitcoin price forecasts after Trump’s election:
Standard Chartered Bank: 200,000
Bernstein: 90,000
Bitwise: 250,000 (without considering the election)
