The Bullish Momentum of Bitcoin Stemming from Macro Factors: Halving and ETF Do Not Guarantee Upside
10x Research analyst Markus Thielen stated that the current cryptocurrency market is dominated by selling pressure, and it is almost certain that prices will decline in the short term.
Bitcoin ETF flows continue to decline
Macro factors are unfavorable
Bitcoin halving is not a bullish event
Markus Thielen stated in a CoinDesk podcast that there are currently no catalysts that can push prices higher again:
“We no longer have the upward momentum to push prices from $40,000 to $70,000. The main reason is the Bitcoin spot ETF. In the past few weeks, there has been almost no new capital inflow, and investors seem to have lost interest, especially traditional financial investors.”
Markus Thielen previously maintained a bullish view even when ETF flows were declining and believed that stablecoins were the true indicator of capital inflow.
(10x Research: Stablecoin inflows replace ETFs as the driving force of price increase; ENA is expected to reach $5)
Macro factors are unfavorable
Markus Thielen emphasized that the macro environment is the main driving force for price increases. From the end of last year to early 2024, traders believed that the Fed would cut interest rates multiple times this year, which helped boost the prices of risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Markus Thielen:
“The inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds did not suddenly stop, but it stopped on March 12 when the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were announced.”
He cited inflation reports and other data from March, pointing out that inflation is still far above the Fed’s 2% target, leading the Fed to express uncertainty about whether it will cut interest rates.
Bitcoin halving is not a bullish event
Bitcoin halving often brings about a bull market, but Markus Thielen still believes that it is macro factors that bring about a bull market for Bitcoin, not halving itself:
“The upward trend is mainly due to a positive macro environment, not the halving itself. For example, the last halving occurred in May 2020, accompanied by large-scale fiscal stimulus measures surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic (interest rate cuts, money printing). I hardly attribute any price increase to the halving.”
He expects the market to enter a consolidation period lasting for several weeks, with Bitcoin possibly falling to $50,000 and rebounding before the end of the year.
10x research
Markus Thielen
