“Veteran Trader Exits the Scene with the Remark: ‘Retail Investors Love to Fantasize’ – An In-Depth Analysis of the Development Across Various Sectors in the Cryptocurrency Space, Garnering 120,000 Views”
Senior trader in the crypto circle @qklpjeth left a retrospective article on his observations in the crypto world before deleting his Twitter account and withdrawing from the scene, stating in his self-introduction, “Retail investors love to fantasize.” Since the account has been deleted, this article is based on a compilation by @MrApeV. This article mentions the current state of blockchain, various tracks, and market participants (meme coins, yield farming, secondary trading, exchanges), as follows:
I casually wrote some thoughts, losing patience towards the end, so just take a look. This is what I see in the crypto world. Introduction: One must learn to accept that anything can happen, allowing everything to happen, especially in the crypto space.
About BTC
I do not believe in BTC, and I have never held BTC. But I am grateful for BTC and Satoshi Nakamoto.
About Blockchain
Evolution of the circles: In the past, the crypto circle was divided into three circles: the “pie circle” (a term commonly used in China to refer to Bitcoin as “big pie,” representing BTC’s fundamental teachings), the “chain circle,” and the “trading circle,” with mutual disdain among these groups; now, people in the pie circle either seek freedom or lose everything in various ways, while those in the trading circle have all entered the chain circle through OKX/TRX/BSC. The crypto space now only consists of the chain circle.
The dilemma of mass adoption: People in the chain circle dream daily of mass adoption, but MEV cannot be resolved. I do not know how to solve it, but I believe that MEV must be completely resolved for mass adoption to be possible.
The paradox of users and players: The crypto circle consists of players rather than users. I said this three or four years ago when public chains and game finance were booming, and it was just a few people playing around. It is still the same now; a few people are playing, and there are no users, only money-making players.
The dilemma of U cards: There are a few evergreen tracks in the chain circle (public chains/exchanges/lending/payments), but those who need U cards often do not comply with regulations (recently, the Bybit card has been taken down again), and compliant people cannot use them.
(After the Layer 2 era, is Morph the next air force target? Has the strongest U card been born? An article detailing Morph’s vision and products)
This reflects the projects in the chain circle: great projects do not issue tokens (USDT/USDC), while projects that do issue tokens are not great.
Conclusion: Without users, to put it simply, it is useless. This is the current state of the crypto world; it is useless. Oh, it seems there are a few exceptions, but those that issue tokens do not distribute dividends or repurchase, and gradually, they also lose users.
About MEME
The logic behind the rise of MEME: Since it is useless, let’s just go for MEME directly. The reason MEME has become popular in the past two years: BTC has broken new highs, and crypto players need a wealth transfer movement. Whether you call it money laundering or conspiracy trading, the wave has come.
(From AI proxy research to Trump’s single coin generating 500 million: An interview with CryptoD, founder of 1000X GEM, discussing on-chain trading experiences)
Limitations of MEME: I am a staunch believer in altcoins, earning slightly in MEME while ultimately breaking even. Why is it not sustainable? No VC is willing to take over (VCs are out of money/it’s hard to justify buying MEME), lacking VC holdings, and when retail investors and big players sense a breeze, they smash the market, leading to a gradually deteriorating ecosystem.
Future outlook: I believe MEME will find it hard to enter another bull market. Deceiving can be done, but be cautious about the frequency. VCs still will not take over; the ecosystem will remain unchanged.
About Yield Farming, Low-Risk Arbitrage, and Fee Rates
Yield farming track: The earliest yield farmers have now exited. There will still be some godly trades, but it is too competitive.
On-chain arbitrage: Still ongoing, but the risk is too high (protocols being hacked is just a matter of time), and the profits of “three melons and two dates” do not correspond to the risks.
Fee rates: After compliance, the bonuses disappear, and in a volatile market, fee rates trend towards zero.
About Contracts
Contracts are tools that amplify human nature. Those who can master them can make a fortune, but 99.99% of people are not suited for it. Personal experience: After 8 years of play, when I finally tallied the accounts, I had not made any money.
About Human Nature and Practitioners
Industry degradation: The people in the crypto circle are too bad now, only wanting to pick each other’s pockets. Project teams have gone bad; the VC coin model was invented to prevent laziness, but the lower limit keeps dropping (taking a few million or tens of millions of dollars and no longer working). Comparing the past: people used to want to grow the pie, while now people just want to take a bite and leave.
Practitioners: From Stanford PhDs to mental health workers (similar to Taiwan’s term for “89 sister”). With more industry people, the bad ones have also increased.
About Secondary Trading
The secondary trading in the crypto circle is the most exhausting (24 hours, seven days a week, all year round). Personal insight: I cannot articulate a theory, relying entirely on luck to come back from the dead.
About Exchanges
Binance: A user since 2017, trading up to VIP9. The current Binance “is shitting on the industry,” and the listing team seems to have only one person left.
OKX: Nurse Xu earned enough money in the early years and may now truly want to contribute to the industry.
Challenges for DEX: They need to face the lag and compliance issues that CEX has experienced, with a long way ahead.
About Me
Reason for withdrawal: Everything in the crypto circle is meaningless; it is just a number game. One A9 corresponds to 100 A7 bankruptcies, and I was once a bankrupt A7. I want to do something truly meaningful.
Postscript
The existing problems in the crypto circle can be solved by a flood of capital. But when the flood comes, other markets can also profit. “The gap between people is greater than the gap between man and dog.” Three years ago, I thought this statement was a disdain for humanity, but now I increasingly find it reasonable.
Ramblings: Back then, I was stubborn, refusing to listen to anything; now I am taciturn, unable to say anything.
(The entire text represents personal views and does not accept rebuttals)
Risk Warning
Investment in cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, and their prices can be highly volatile. You may lose all your principal. Please assess the risks with caution.
