Market Focus Shifts Back to Trade War, BTC Consolidates; Arthur Hayes: $77K May Be the Bottom

Global Stock Markets Continue to Struggle, Failing to Extend the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Slowdown of Balance Sheet Reduction, Market Focus Shifts Back to Trade War Concerns

Bitcoin has once again fallen into a sideways consolidation, but Arthur Hayes believes that the 77K level for Bitcoin may have already marked the bottom.

U.S. Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Slows Down Balance Sheet Reduction to Release Liquidity, Bitcoin Returns to 87K

The U.S. housing market sales exceeded expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims, which measures unemployment, also met expectations, signaling a healthy labor market.

Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Market Research and Strategy team, stated:

“Although the bottom of the recent adjustment may have already appeared, we may not have seen the end of volatility. Policy uncertainty has not disappeared, and the market remains sensitive to shifts in sentiment.”

After the U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, kept interest rates unchanged this week, he downplayed concerns about economic growth and the price impacts from the trade war. The Trump administration is preparing to announce a new round of tariffs on April 2, but the exact scope remains unclear. The European Union had initially planned to impose tariffs on U.S. imports soon to retaliate against the U.S. tariffs on European steel and aluminum products. However, an EU spokesperson announced on Thursday that the plan would be delayed until mid-April to allow more time for discussions with the U.S. government.

EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Imports Until Mid-April, Allowing More Time for Negotiations

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin 77K May Have Already Been the Bottom

Bitcoin has once again fallen into a period of sideways consolidation. Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, who previously predicted that BTC could pull back to 70K, has issued another forecast. He believes that Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve declared that quantitative tightening (QT) will end on April 1. The next thing to watch is whether the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) regulation for large banks will be eased and the official start of quantitative easing (QE).

Hayes suggests that the 77K level Bitcoin previously reached may already be the bottom. However, he also warns that there could still be some pain in the process, so flexibility and ample funds are necessary.

His customized U.S. bank credit supply index has already started to rise, which he views as a good sign, although it does not mean that the sell-off is over, but the likelihood of a more optimistic outlook is increasing.

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