Is the Rise of Ethereum Driven by a Desire to Acquire More Bitcoin? Samson Mow: No One Wants ETH in the Long Run.

Recent Surge of Ethereum: ETH/BTC Rate Doubles

Ethereum has recently experienced a rapid increase, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate doubling. Bitcoin maximalist and JAN3 CEO Samson Mow believes that the rise of ETH is merely a short-term operation by early holders seeking to exchange for more BTC, ultimately leading to a sell-off of ETH and a return to Bitcoin. He bluntly stated, “In the long run, no one wants ETH,” warning investors to be cautious of getting trapped.

Mow’s Analysis

Truth Behind ETH’s Rise: Ultimately for More BTC

Samson Mow pointed out yesterday that most early ETH holders, including ICO participants and insiders, originally held a significant amount of BTC and are now converting that BTC into ETH to boost its price through new narratives like the “Ethereum Treasury.”

Let me explain what’s happening with ETHBTC.
Most ETH holders have a lot of BTC (ICO/insiders) and they are rotating that BTC into ETH to pump it on new narratives (Ethereum Treasury co’s).
Once they’ve gotten it high enough, they’ll dump their ETH, creating new generational…
— Samson Mow (@Excellion)August 10, 2025

Once the price reaches an ideal range, they will sell their ETH, making new holders the next generation of “bagholders,” and then they will redirect the profits back into BTC. He stated, “In the long run, no one wants ETH.” In his view, this market movement does not seem to be a reassessment of ETH’s long-term value as emphasized by outsiders but rather a capital rotation aimed at BTC.

Why ETH Struggles to Break New Highs? The Bagholder’s Dilemma is Key

Mow further noted that even if ETH gains strength, breaking historical highs (ATH) remains extremely challenging. As the price approaches ATH, the urge to sell among holders becomes stronger, creating what he calls the “Bagholder’s Dilemma.” This choice, similar to the prisoner’s dilemma, offers only the options of “sell to take profit” or “continue holding,” with no option to “add more.”

Moreover, he expressed no concerns about the short-term breakthrough of the ETH/BTC exchange rate through the long-term downtrend line, believing it to be merely history repeating itself: Ethereum has always been a tool for those to acquire more Bitcoin. This was true during the ICO era, and it remains so now.

ETH/BTC Rate Doubles, BTC Market Share Continues to Decline

According to TradingView data, the ETH/BTC ratio has doubled from its low of 0.018 in April to 0.036. During this period, the price of ETH has surged to $4,300, while the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, causing Bitcoin’s market share (BTC.D) to decline by about 6% since the end of June.

Based on renowned trader Eugene’s predictions last month for ETH/BTC, it has now significantly surpassed its mid-term target of 0.03, looking ahead to 0.04 or higher.

Bullish Call: Joseph Lubin Claims ETH Will Surpass BTC Market Cap Within a Year

In contrast to Mow’s pessimistic view, Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin recently stated in an interview with CNBC that he believes ETH could surpass BTC in market cap within a year, especially with the trend of Ethereum treasury companies driving the movement.

Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin hinted on CNBC that he believes $ETH could flip $BTC within “the next year or so, especially with these treasury companies driving things.”
At bitcoin’s current market cap, ETH would need to be around $20,000 to flip it.
pic.twitter.com/o3730nEmCY
— Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi)August 10, 2025

Based on the current market cap of BTC, ETH would need to reach approximately $20,000 to achieve this goal, which is still a distance away from the $15,000 target set by Ethereum bull and BitMine Chairman Tom Lee. Investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows also tweeted on Sunday predicting that ETH will reach new highs, triggering a small altcoin season, after which funds will rotate back to Bitcoin until it reaches about $140,000, and finally, return to ETH and other altcoins. This pattern of capital rotation has also been observed in previous cycles.

Risk Warning

Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, and their prices can be highly volatile; you may lose your entire principal. Please assess the risks carefully.