Will Bitcoin Continue to Rise? Coinbase Reveals Key Factors for a Positive Crypto Market in the Second Half of 2025
As 2025 Approaches Its Second Half, Coinbase’s Latest Report Indicates a Turning Point in the Cryptocurrency Market
Despite rising U.S. Treasury yields and potential selling pressure from certain crypto companies, the overall environment remains favorable. The primary reasons for this are the better-than-expected performance of the U.S. economy, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the rising trend of corporate Bitcoin reserves, and the simultaneous advancement of stablecoin and market structure bills in the U.S., all of which are expected to drive a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
U.S. Economic Stabilization and Easing Recession Concerns
The report indicates that earlier this year, fears of a “technical recession” gripped the market due to Trump’s return to the White House, his use of “high tariffs” to pressure global allies to restart trade negotiations, and tensions in U.S.-China trade relations. This was compounded by a 0.2% decline in the annualized Q1 GDP, causing further market distress.
However, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, the estimated growth rate for Q2 has been revised up to 3.8%, demonstrating strong economic momentum. Even with a potential slowdown ahead, the market anticipates only a mild cooling of the economy, avoiding a scenario reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, with the U.S. M2 money supply and global central bank assets expanding in tandem, asset prices are also receiving robust support.
From the chart below, it can be observed that during this round of correction in 2025:
“Although Bitcoin and the Coinbase cryptocurrency market index COIN50 have declined, the volatility is significantly lower than in the past, indicating an improved market resilience. Overall, the response is also more stable compared to previous financial crises.”
Financial Reporting System Transformation: Bitcoin Becomes a New Favorite Asset for Companies
The report notes that the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) will begin relaxing accounting standards by the end of 2024, allowing companies to calculate cryptocurrency assets at market value and recognize profits without having to sell. This is expected to encourage more companies to enter the market. As seen in the chart below:
“Since 2024, the number of million-dollar Bitcoin wallets has surged. With prices breaking the $100,000 mark, many high-net-worth investors have increasingly entered the market, strengthening the consensus on Bitcoin as a reserve asset.”
Issuing Debt to Buy Bitcoin as a New Corporate Trend: Short-term Selling Pressure Manageable, Medium to Long-term Awaiting Observation
As of now, there are 228 publicly listed companies globally that collectively hold approximately 820,000 Bitcoins. In addition to MicroStrategy and Tesla, many new startups focusing on “buying Bitcoin as their main business” have emerged, using debt issuance to finance their purchases. However, Coinbase also warns that these companies face two significant potential risks that could affect market sentiment:
- Forced Selling: If debt matures or refinancing is not possible, companies may be forced to sell their Bitcoin to repay debts.
- Discretionary Selling: Even if it is solely for cash flow management, selling could trigger panic selling from other companies or the market.
However, as illustrated in the chart below:
“The convertible bonds of crypto companies like Strategy and MARA are primarily due in 2029-2030, totaling $4 billion. This indicates limited short-term maturity pressure, showing that the current market selling pressure risk remains manageable.”
U.S. Regulation Shifts from Enforcement to Institutionalization: Most Crypto ETF Applications Expected to Be Decided in October
The report states that U.S. regulation is shifting from “enforcement crackdown” to “proactive legislation” in the first half of 2025, bringing positive expectations to the market. The following are the two major legislative developments:
- The Stablecoin Bills “STABLE Act” and “GENIUS Act”: Entering the congressional coordination phase, covering reserves, compliance, and bankruptcy protection, with the earliest possible approval by Trump before the August 4 recess.
- The Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act): Clearly delineating the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC, laying the groundwork for the regulation of the future digital asset market.
Currently, there are approximately 80 crypto ETF applications, including spot ETFs such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), SOL, and Ripple (XRP), as well as “physical in-and-out” and “staking” ETFs, which are under review by the SEC. Some applications may have results announced as early as July, while most applications may be delayed until October for a decision.
Bitcoin’s Upward Trend Strengthens: Altcoins Focus on Fundamentals
Overall, Coinbase is optimistic that the cryptocurrency market will remain favorable in 2025, benefiting from stable U.S. economic data, rising interest rate cut expectations, a continued trend of companies holding Bitcoin, and progressively clearer regulatory frameworks, particularly favoring Bitcoin.
In contrast, altcoins depend on various fundamentals and policy directions. There are still promising projects in the market, but careful selection is necessary.
(Not every company can be MicroStrategy: Analyzing the risks of crypto reserve companies through Sharplink’s 70% plunge)
Risk Warning
Investing in cryptocurrencies carries high risks, and prices may fluctuate dramatically, potentially resulting in the loss of your entire principal. Please assess the risks cautiously.
