Can AI Military Technology Turn the Tide in the Taiwan Strait War? Insights from Anduril Founder Luckey’s Warnings on Taiwan’s Defense Strategy Against China

China has continuously threatened Taiwan with both military and psychological tactics, and in the future, it may launch a blitzkrieg against Taiwan, crippling its networks and using missiles to dismantle Taiwan’s defenses. Meanwhile, the United States, as an ally, may lag in providing timely support, resulting in Taiwan’s rapid defeat. In response, Palmer Luckey, founder of the American defense technology company Anduril Industries, publicly issued a warning during a TED talk on April 26 and shared how to rebuild military deterrence using AI weaponry.

China could conquer Taiwan within weeks, and U.S. military support may last less than eight days

Luckey opened with a stark warning: if China were to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan, missiles could incapacitate air force bases and command centers, while cyberattacks would leave Taiwan completely unprepared. The United States’ attempts to provide support would reveal a lack of sufficient weapons, vehicles, and response capabilities, leading to:

• U.S. naval vessels being sunk by anti-ship missiles in the Pacific.
• Insufficient numbers of fighter jets being shot down in large quantities.
• U.S. precision munitions being exhausted in just eight days.

Subsequently, Taiwan would succumb to overwhelming pressure and fall within weeks, causing a global economic collapse.

Global economic collapse due to Taiwan’s chip supply disruption

Luckey pointed out that Taiwan is the world’s production center for advanced AI chips, controlling over 90% of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. If Taiwan’s wafer fabs were to come under Chinese control or be destroyed, the following industries would be completely paralyzed:

• Mobile phones
• Computers
• Cars
• Medical equipment

The economic loss would reach tens of trillions of dollars, triggering the worst depression in a century. Even more frightening is that the global order of freedom would be replaced by Chinese authoritarianism.

U.S. defense industry stagnation, tech sector shifting funds to China

Luckey criticized the stagnation of traditional U.S. defense contractors, who prioritize shareholder profits over technological innovation. The Silicon Valley tech sector has also shifted to “money towards China,” neglecting national defense security. As a result, U.S. military weapon intelligence is lagging behind civilian technology:

• Tesla’s AI is smarter than U.S. military aircraft.
• Roomba’s autonomous capabilities surpass those of Pentagon weapon systems.
• Snapchat’s filter image recognition is more advanced than military sensors.

Image shows the Roomba vacuum cleaner and Snapchat filters.

After being dismissed by Facebook, Luckey invests private funds into new AI defense weaponry

Since being ousted from Facebook, Luckey has chosen to engage in national defense and founded Anduril. Unlike traditional defense contractors, Anduril develops defensive products with private funds, independent of government budgets, allowing for faster and cheaper development of various innovative AI weapons. Examples include:

• AI drones
• AI submarines
• AR combat helmets
• Anti-drone weapon system Roadrunner, which went from design to operational deployment in just 24 months.

Emphasizing the restoration of deterrence through a multitude of AI weapons

Luckey emphasized that the U.S. cannot catch up to China’s overwhelming numerical superiority using traditional ship and tank manufacturing. What is truly needed is an AI weapon system that can be rapidly mass-produced and continuously upgraded. The key to future victories lies in:

• Enhancing existing personnel and weapons with AI.
• Using AI unmanned systems to suppress the enemy.
• Combating enemy numbers with rapid manufacturing and optimization.

Luckey claims that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 232 times that of the U.S.

Led by AI, fast, flexible, and sustainable combat operations

Luckey pointed out that AI is the only weapon capable of breaking China’s mass tactics. The U.S. should create a new type of force that relies on intelligence and speed rather than large numbers. This approach would eliminate the need for extensive manpower costs and enable victory in future wars. Furthermore, AI can improve operational decision-making accuracy, reduce collateral damage, and even lower the likelihood of war.

The moral challenge of AI weaponry: “If the U.S. doesn’t do it, authoritarian countries will”

Addressing the moral controversy surrounding “killer machines,” Luckey candidly stated:

• “Not letting AI fire” sounds appealing, but in reality, it is more irresponsible.
• AI can distinguish between targets to reduce misfires, such as differentiating between school buses and enemy tanks.
• Weapon AI has actually existed for a long time, as seen in systems like Aegis and automated defensive weapons.

He stressed that if the U.S. abandons the development of AI weaponry, authoritarian countries like China and Russia will seize the opportunity, making the world a much more dangerous place.

Simulating the Taiwan Strait War, using AI unmanned fleets for a comprehensive counterattack

Luckey concluded by painting an alternative scenario for the Taiwan Strait War:

• When Chinese missiles strike, stationed AI drones would immediately counterattack, intercepting enemy missiles and bombers.
• AI submarines, unmanned warships, and stealth aircraft would launch surprise attacks, thoroughly disrupting China’s offensive.
• AI fighter jets could shoot down enemy aircraft at speeds surpassing human reaction times.
• Ground robots and long-range strike weapons would prevent Chinese forces from landing.

Such a situation would let adversaries truly feel the “cost of being unable to win,” restoring peace and deterrence.

Using technology to safeguard freedom, preventing war through innovation

Luckey finally urged that Taiwan and the U.S. must rethink how to approach war and deterrence, integrating technological innovation with the strength of traditional allies to protect the freedom and prosperity of future generations.
(Anduril’s rise: From a VR dreamer to a military giant favored by Trump, founder Luckey invested $1 billion to create an unmanned drone army.)

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